This thread contains unofficial discussions on tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones, primarily in the West Pacific and North Atlantic basin, formed during the 2022 season. Information presented here may differ from forecasts from other agencies.

Tropical Cyclones are warm-core, non-frontal low pressure systems characterized by organized cloud clusters near the center (central dense overcast).

Subtropical cyclones are shallow warm core, non-frontal low pressure systems with some non-tropical features (e.g. shallower convection, large radius of maximum winds and asymmetric structure due to interaction with upper level lows, etc.)

Abbreviations:

SST - Sea Surface Temperature

VWS - Vertical wind shear (typically 200-850mb shear)

LLCC - Low Level Circulation Center

OHC - Ocean Heat Content

Useful links:

CIMSS

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Tidbits

Weathernerds

RAMMB Real-Time Tropical Cyclones

Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)

Past discussions:

Before 2020 2020 2021

kinda hope i get a hurricane. would definitely spice up boring living. i want danger and excitement

I experienced that last Hurricane season (2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season). Nothing to spice things up other than a 150 mph, Category 4 Hurricane.

Any chance of a hurricane making landfall in Denver, CO this year? Asking for a friend.

I thought this was a troll question at first glance but I will take it seriously.

The simplest answer is no. Colorado is located pretty far inland and is surrounded by high terrain (at least 1000 meters tall). And this is an insurmountable obstacle for virtually all tropical cyclones. As a tropical cyclone tracks across land, it loses its energy source (warm seas) and its circulation will be discounted by rough terrain. In all past cases where a tropical cyclone tried to move inland toward Colorado, it simply dissipated well before reaching the destination.

Another obstacle is upper level winds. The prevailing winds are from the southwest to northeast during hurricane season. Which means typically a tropical system can only approach the area from the East Pacific on a northeasterly course. This trajectory takes a tropical cyclone over large mountainous areas (and potentially cooler seas in the vicinity of Baja California) compared with a track across north Texas from the Gulf of Mexico.

That said, even after a tropical cyclone loses its identity, the associated cloudiness can spread much farther inland and create heavy rain.

There is no reliable way to predict whether there will a be storm similar to Nora in 2022.

I mean, it was meant to be a bit silly. But I thought you might have an interesting answer. Which you did. I didn't expect a hurricane to reach so far inland, but it's pretty cool that a tropical cyclone could have effects that reach that far and over mountains.

Actually, tropical cyclones can and have traveled as far inland as the Great Lakes Region, as tropical depressions.

See: https://www.weather.gov/lot/tropical_climatology

The most recent one was Tropical Storm Alberto (2018)

The terrain in the Eastern US consists of mainly flat land that allows a relatively defined circulation to persist for maintaing tropical status. In addition, there is typically an abundance of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico that enables an inland tropical depression or storm to generate convection that is not usually available in the West Coast. Finally, systems that enter that area often get upper level support (baroclinic forcing) that could allow tropical systems to sustain themselves for a longer period of time.

Interestingly, in 1996, a cyclone (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Lake_Huron_cyclone) that was remarkably similar to a hurricane formed over the Great Lakes. Although it was not classified as one officially, it has many features of a tropical system, including well organized moderate to deep convection and a fairly symmetric structure. The origin of the storm was non-tropical but the cyclone managed to intensify through convective instability generated by relatively warm waters in the Great Lakes, the same mechanism that develops a tropical cyclone.

Intense Tropical Cyclone Batsirai

Intense Tropical Cyclone Batsirai near its peak intensity. The highest Dvorak numbers were at T6.5/127kt, though earlier SMAP pass only showed maximum winds of slightly above 100 kt. The estimated peak intensity according to JTWC was 125 knots

Since then, Batsirai has weakened some and recent recent radar shows the development of a secondary outer eyewall. Favorable upper level environment and a relatively high (28C) SST should support Intense Tropical Cyclone intensities (>100 kt) before making landfall over Madagascar.

A gradual re-curvature toward the SW and S ahead of an approaching mid-level trough is expected around 120 hours. Direct impacts, including gale force winds, on South Africa is possible.

Tropical Cyclone Gombe

Tropical Cyclone Gombe has tracked westward over the past couple of days along the northern periphery of a mid-level steering ridge. Currently intensity is estimated to be 45 knots based on Dvorak classification of T3.0 from JTWC and is close to objective estimates.

Satellite imagery reveals that the center is well-defined with deep convective bands wrapping 60% around the LLC.

The system will continue to track WSW over the next several days toward the vicinity of Nacala, South Africa and will make landfall within the next 48-60 hours. Favorable environmental conditions (moderate 15-20 kts VWS, high SST (29-30C) and OHC, and good outflow channel reinforced by the eastern extension of an upper level ridge) will allow significant strengthening over the next couple of days to a peak intensity of near 100 knots. Current intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity models.

After landfall, favorable upper level conditions, greatly offset by land interaction, will cause a slower-than-normal rate of weakening. In addition, the system is expected to decrease in forward speed due to the erosion of the steering ridge to the north.

The latest GFS and ECMWF guidance suggest a possibility of a southeasterly track into Mozambique channel due to low heights to the south of the system, where favorable upper trough interaction could support re-development, whereas the HWRF indicates a blocking ridge leading gradual dissipation inland. The current forecast lies closer to HWRF due to the expectation of high heights ahead of an eastward-propagating trough.

In view of the discrepancies between models, forecast track confidence is low beyond 48 hours.

Intensity forecast confidence is medium, due to the potential of rapid intensification over the Mozambique channel in the near term, which is explicitly forecast between 24-48 h.

Particularly heavy rainfall (total rain accumulations exceeding 200 mm) is expected due to its slow movement across land.

Intensity forecast:

09/06z: 45 kts

10/06z: 65 kts

11/06z: 95 kts (Near the coast)

12/06z: 40 kts

13/06z: 30 kts (Remnant Low/Inland)

14/06z: 25 kts (Remnant Low/Inland)

I'm going to make an OFFICIAL thread and hijack this whole discussion unless you paypal me 100€

The last hurricane/tropical depression/whatever I remember hitting here in Southern Ontario was what was left of Hurricane Opal in 1995. I was a kid, but I remember it being one heck of a storm.

That and evacuating from Hurricane Felix while in Virginia (also in 1995, there may be pictures of the hurricane warning flags at the beach) forged a life long fascination with intense storms. Hell, I wrote my undergrad thesis on evacuation behaviour patterns for Atlantic hurricanes.

Tropical Low 91B (Bay of Bengal)

An area of low pressure is gradually moving northward in southeastern Bay of Bengal. The circulation has become better defined since yesterday and there is moderate confidence in its current position (near 10.6N 94.5E at 12z) based on low to mid-level turning. Deep convection has been maintained over the low pressure area. Latest Dvorak estimate was T1.5/25kt.

An ASCAT pass earlier today revealed maximum winds of 25-30 knots in the eastern side of the system. Based on these data, the initial intensity is estimated at 30 knots.

The system is being supported by slightly favorable upper level environment with broad westward outflow and weak poleward outflow. Vertical wind shear is moderate at 15-20 knots. SST is at 29-30C.

Upper level westward outflow will remain strong during the next day or so, and upper level conditions (with favorable SST, low VWS and mid-level humidity) will fuel slight intensification to Cyclonic Storm status within the next 24 hours. The system will be steered northward during the next 36-48 hours by the western periphery of the subtropical ridge.

Beyond 48 hours, a recurve to the NE is anticipated as the system begins to round the ridge axis. At the same time, upper level outflow will diminish and south westerlies aloft (partly due to a displaced mid-level circulation) will inject drier mid-level air mass to the system. SST is also forecast to decrease to 27C. Thus a weakening trend is expected as the system nears the west coast of Myanmar. Landfall as a Depression or a weak Cyclonic Storm at 60-72 hours is likely.

Due to its weak nature and the relatively fast forward speed at landfall, rain totals in the vicinity of the cyclone are estimated to be 100-150 mm. After landfall, the cyclone will dissipate rapidly due to terrain.

In terms of forecast track and intensity, HWRF lies on the eastern envelop and is the strongest while ECMWF is on the western side and significantly weaker. The current track and intensity is based on the GFS which lies between the two outliers.

Overall, there is high confidence in intensity and medium confidence in track forecast.

Forecast intensities:

20/12z: 30 kt

21/12z: 40 kt (Cyclonic Storm)

22/12z: 35 kt

23/12z: Dissipated

Tropical Depression (03W)

Tropical Depression forms just to the east of the Visayas, Philippines. Current intensity is estimated at 25 knots based on T1.5/25kt and ASCAT showing a well-defined center with 20-25 knot winds. The system is drifting slowly to the northwest along the extension of a subtropical high to its north. 03W is located in a favorable environment with high (29C) SST, good poleward and westward outflow, offset by low to moderate (15-20 kts) easterly VWS.

The system is expected to continue in its current direction of motion over the next 24 to 48 hours. However, the approaching TS 02W will interact with the system and cause it to accelerate toward the east.

Favorable near-term environment will support limited strengthening to a weak TS. Increased relative VWS will serve to weaken the system beyond 48 hours and most models indicate absorption into nearby TS 02W.

Model tracks diverge significantly with regards to its short-term track with the GFS showing immediate eastward movement and the ECMWF showing continued northwest progression along the islands. The current forecast depicts little motion over the next 48 hours, followed by binary interaction with TS 02W and absorption.

Intensity forecast:

09/00z: 25 kt (TD)

10/00z: 35 kt (TS)

11/00z: 40 kt

12/00z: 35 kt

13/00z: Absorbed into TS 02W

An area of disturbed weather is associated with a low pressure area (Invest 92B), located south of the Andaman Islands (near 8.5N 92.5E) at 12 UTC today. Convection has become better organized overnight with organizing convective banding obscuring the LLC. Maximum wind is estimated at 25 knots, based on curved band pattern yielding a T1.5.

The system is located in a favorable environment with weak (5-15 kt) deep-layered easterly VWS and high (30C) SST, with moderate outflow. It is tracking northwestward along the western portion of a subtropical ridge.

Satellite and model analysis indicate the cyclone is vertically stacked from surface to 500 hPa, a structure favoring further intensification.

Global models and the HWRF agree on intensification to a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, as the system continues to track northwestward into the Bay of Bengal, but differ in terms of intensification potential. The 06z HWRF deepens the system rapidly to 940 hPa by 72 hours while the ECMWF only shows modest strengthening.

The present intensity forecast follows the GFS scenario more closely, showing steady strengthening in the near term before the system begins to be influenced by mid-level dry air and moderate upper easterly shear.

Around 72 hours, the system will begin to round the steering ridge axis and take a more northerly track. At the same time, VWS induced by an upper level anticyclone will increase, leading a weakening trend.

There is moderate confidence in track forecast due to reasonably tight agreement between models, offset by variability in steering currents at later times and low confidence in intensity forecast due to large spread in intensity guidance.

Intensity forecast:

06/12z: 25 kt

07/12z: 35 kt (Cyclonic Storm)

08/12z: 50 kt

09/12z: 55 kt

10/12z: 45 kt

11/12z: 30 kt (Deep Depression)

Invest 91E

Deep convection continues to develop and become better organized over the center of a low pressure area, currently located a couple hundred miles south of Gulf of Tehuantepec. The system is moving west-northwestward under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge that is expected to begin weakening during the next couple of days.

Subjective Dvorak estimates range from T1.0 to T1.5. Maximum wind is estimated at 25 knots.

Upper level environment is favorable with moderate outflow in all directions and low (5-10 kt) southerly VWS. SST in the area is also favorable at 30C. Global models and the HWRF agree that the low pressure area will strengthen steadily over the next couple of days, developing gradually into a tropical cyclone. Despite a favorable environment and the improved convective structure, recent satellite analysis indicate the low level structure of the low pressure area is still broad and not very well organized and this will be the limiting factor in the short term.

Upper level winds (dual channel outflow and low VWS) will remain favorable until its eventual landfall in the south coast of Mexico. A potential inhibiting factor is the presence of dry air to the northwest and its intensity will partly depend on how the system fight off the dry air, especially after t=72 hours. For now, it is assumed that the cyclone will only develop gradually during the first 48 hours or so and encounter slightly less favorable humidity in the longer term.

In terms of its forecast track, the cyclone will generally be steered westward by the aforementioned ridge. At 72 hours, a major trough across interior US will weaken the primary steering ridge and cause a northward turn toward Mexico. Steering currents appear to be fairly weak in the long term and this is reflected in the slower-than-normal forecast track.

Rapid dissipation is expected after landfall, with the remnants continue to spread northeastward across Central America.

The SHIPS rapid intensification matrix indicates a 63% chance of RI of 55 knots over the next 48 hours. This is discounted at this time due to less-than-ideal structure.

Forecast track (to 96 h):

Intensity forecast:

27/12z: 25 kt (LPA)

28/12z: 35 kt (TS Agatha)

29/12z: 55 kt

30/12z: 75 kt (Cat 1)

31/12z: 45 kt

01/12z: Dissipated over land

my house will be fine

Hurricane Agatha

Over the past few hours, the central dense overcast (CDO) has expanded significantly, with the low level center being embedded in very cold (-80 to 90C) cloud tops. In addition, deep convection has strong rotation around the well-defined core. Dvorak estimates have increased to T4.0/65kt and T4.5/77kt, while the ADT is at 72 kt. On this basis, the intensity at 12z is increased to 70 knots, making Agatha the first East Pacific hurricane in the 2022 season.

The center appears to be moving north-northwestward and the direction of motion is anticipated to turn gradually to the NE over the next 12 hours or so, as a trough across CONUS erodes the steering ridge to its north. Afterwards, the cyclone will become embedded within stronger mid-level southwesterly flow, associated with a subtropical ridge to the southeast and a weak remnant trough to the north. This will cause the hurricane to accelerate during the next day, making landfall in south Mexico shortly after 36 hours.

After landfall, the system will quickly lose its circulation due to mountainous terrain.

Now that the cyclone has developed a strong inner core, rapid intensification in the short term seems possible and the intensity forecast is raised significantly, above all intensity models in the 12z cycle, as the environment still appears to be favorable for further strengthening.

According to current indications, the moisture associated with the storm and its mid-level circulation could emerge into the Bay of Campache in the next few days and a low pressure area is forecast to develop. However, the probability of tropical cyclone regeneration in the Atlantic basin remains low due to potential land interaction and strong upper level shear.

Nevertheless, the area will be monitored for possible tropical cyclone development over the next few days.

Intensity forecast:

29/12z: 70 kt (Cat 1)

30/12z: 95 kt (Cat 2)

31/12z: 40 kt (TS)

01/12z: Dissipated over land

stop causing weather

Invest 91L (NE Yutacan, expected to become a tropical storm by tomorrow)

High OHC and strong upper level divergence from upper trough interaction have aided in deep convection development east of a low pressure area (Invest 91L) during the past several hours, although the surface circulation is still poorly defined. Environmental conditions are marginal to unfavorable for development, with high SST, strong divergence (28C) and moist mid-level, greatly offset by high (30-40 kt) southwesterly VWS and land interaction.

The system is tracking northward slowly along the eastern periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical ridge. Slow intensification is expected during the first 48 hours due to persistently high VWS. A general motion to the N and NE is forecast during this time as the aforementioned ridge assumes primary steering. Global models have hinted at center reformation down-shear and this is taken into account in the track forecast. Near landfall, models also show significant dry air entrainment into the weak circulation and this will greatly inhibit further development.

The system will track across South Florida between 48 and 72 hours, making landfall as a weak to moderate tropical storm. Beyond 72 hours, VWS will further increase, while along-track SST will fall to 26C or below. However, baroclinic forcing should help maintain intensity or lead to slower weakening of the cyclone.

The potential tropical storm will probably lose all its convection by 120 hours, becoming a remnant low.

Heavy rain is forecast across the Carribean and Florida during the next couple of days.

5-day forecast track:

Forecast intensity:

02/12z: 30 kt (Disturbance)

03/12z: 40 kt (TS Alex)

04/12z: 45 kt

05/12z: 45 kt

06/12z: 40 kt (Post-tropical)

07/12z: 35 kt (Post-tropical)

Invest 97W (South China Sea)

Deep convection, although being displaced to the west by moderate VWS, continues to fire near the center of a low pressure area (Invest 97W), currently located in the central part of South China Sea (15.9N 116.0E). Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for intensification, with high SST (at 30C), moderate westward outflow and moist mid-levels offset by moderate (15-20 kt) northeasterly deep layered shear. The current intensity is conservatively estimated at 20 knots, which is slightly below Dvorak estimates of T1.0-1.5, pending additional data from scatterometer.

Global models are in agreement that the system will track north-northwestward in the near term as a mid-level equatorial ridge to the east strengthens. In a couple of days, a mid-latitude trough across northern China that was responsible for slight weakening of the subtropical ridge across southeastern China will lift out gradually, allowing the subtropical ridge to build westward and assume steering of the system. It will lead to an overall northwesterly track toward western Guangdong.

The recent HWRF runs depict more erosion of the subtropical ridge and a more northerly track toward central Guangdong area. This is being discounted at this time due to strong consensus between global models.

After landfall in around 72 hours, the potential tropical cyclone will weaken due to land interaction and slow down as a secondary trough leads to some erosion of the steering ridge, but this part is of low confidence.

Slow intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours or so due to moderate VWS. The eastern flank of the upper level anticyclone that is responsible for the northerly shear will weaken due to the passage of an upper level trough. In addition, models agree that a 200 hPa diabatic ridge will build east of 97W, perhaps being supported by upper level divergence from trough interaction. These developments should result in lower shear and modest outflow, allowing a slightly faster rate of strengthening. The 06z GFS run is quite bullish with its intensity and depict rapid intensification to 965 hPa by 72 hours, while the 06z ECMWF only indicate continued slow strengthening. The current intensity forecast slightly favors the GFS with low confidence.

Intensity forecast:

29/12z: 20 kt (LPA)

30/12z: 30 kt (TD)

01/12z: 45 kt (TS)

02/12z: 60 kt ... On the coast

03/12z: 25 kt (TD)

04/12z: Dissipated

The system is expected to bring squally showers and heavy rain to southern China, during the first few days of July, as well as strong (up to gale force) winds across parts of the South China Sea and coastal areas.

@Sevenseize is my favorite Typhoon.

She's a typhoon and a half.

Seriously though why did you put this in general discussion?

I wanted to put it in the Supporter Forum but I guess would just let everyone read it.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 02L

A tropical wave is moving rapidly across the coast of South America. Climatologically strong easterlies are responsible for the rapid motion. While upper level shear has been fairly weak, rapid motion and a lack of low level convergence so far has prevented the development of a closed circulation, and thus, despite the fact that the disturbance has been producing tropical storm force winds on the north side, the system is still being classified as a tropical disturbance. Some amount of dry air entrainment from the south might also have been a cause of delayed tropical cyclonegensis.

The disturbance is beginning to slow down as high pressure to its north weakens, from 25 kt to slightly less than 20 kt. Recent visible satellite imagery suggests that while the cloud pattern of the system mainly consists of a small band north of the circulation, the low level wind field is becoming closed, with hints of weak westerlies south of the assessed center.

Environmental conditions should become more favorable in the short term as the system moves away from land toward warm waters (SST around 28C). Forward speed is predicted by the models to continue to slow down. The 06z HWRF run indicates a well defined circulation just beyond 24 hours, when the system will be moving westward across the southwest Caribbean, likely a result of decreased forward speed and slight strengthening.

Current intensity of the disturbance is estimated at 35 knots, in deference to earlier reconnaissance data.

Owing to the observed satellite trend and model predictions, the system is now expected to make a transition to a tropical storm in about 24 hours. Gradual strengthening is anticipated until the system makes landfall over Central America in about 36 hours. The system is forecast to strengthen to 45 knots at landfall.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 02L will weaken slightly as it interacts with land, but all models predict 02L to cross-over to the East Pacific while maintaining tropical status. After entering the East Pacific, the storm is forecast to re-strengthen at a quicker pace due to high moisture content, low to moderate shear and good upper level outflow.

Models generally predict that 02L will lose some latitude during the next couple of days due to steering influence of the southeast periphery of a subtropical ridge centered in the Gulf of Mexico. A general west-northwesterly track across the East Pacific is forecast as the system becomes located in the southwestern part of the ridge and this direction of motion is expected to continue throughout the forecast. The forecast track is laid close of consensus and ECMWF, which has been performing relative well for this system.

Intensity forecast:

30/12z: 35 kt (Disturbance)

01/12z: 40 kt (Tropical Storm Bonnie)

02/12z: 35 kt

03/12z: 45 kt (Tropical Storm)

04/12z: 65 kt (Cat 1 Hurricane)

05/12z: 70 kt

Invest 96L (West of South Carolina)

Convection has increased and become much better organized near the center of a low pressure system.

Upper level analysis indicates a marginal environment with moderate (20 knots) northwesterly VWS and moderate outflow. Water vapor imagery and model analysis shows mid-level dry air entrainment from the northwest associated with a weak mid-level trough that is currently interacting with 96L.

The recent (00z) GFS run depicts a slow northeasterly track across the Carolina coast before weakening, under the weak steering influence of a low to mid level ridge across the Atlantic.

Instantaneous Dvorak classification is T2.0/30 kt. A ship located a little over 50 nautical miles east of center reports 30 kt sustained winds, whereas ASCAT-C shows winds of 30-35 knots. On these data, the intensity of the low pressure system is set at 35 knots.

As the satellite presentation and the circulation is likely to be sustained at least in the short term, the system is expected to transition into a tropical cyclone shortly.

There is very little model guidance at this time as the system only developed very recently. The track forecast is laid slightly to the right of the 00z GFS run to account for a more eastward initial position and the assumption that a slightly deeper circulation will experience more steering from mid-level westerlies. 96L is expected to remain near or just off the coast of the Carolinas, with slightly additional strengthening. Beyond 12-18 hours, the GFS indicates a passage of a strong mid-level trough northwest of 96L which should guide the system more eastward into the open Atlantic. Increased dry air entrainment and westerly shear should lead to weakening and dissipation of the cyclone.

Intensity forecast:

02/04z: 35 kt

02/12z: 40 kt (TS)

03/00z: 35 kt

03/12z: 30 kt (Post-tropical)

Invest 93W (West Pacific)

An elongated area of low pressure continues to produce central deep convection that is organized into two distinct cloud clusters. Animated satellite imagery suggests that the earlier northerly shear, associated with a TUTT cell, has diminished and the deep layer shear in currently in a westerly direction. SST in that area is very favorable at 29-30C. Although the system has maintained a moderate upper level southerly outflow, the current convective pattern is limiting low level convergence into the dominant low level center and this has contributed to the north-south elongation of the vortex. Thus slow strengthening is indicated in the short term, despite the overall favorable environment.

Vertical wind shear should remain on the low side during the next couple of days and together with high SST and a moist environment, steady strengthening is likely, as the system tracks generally northwestward along the southwestern periphery of the primary mid-level steering ridge. This is likely followed by a more westerly track due to proximity to the westward extension of the subtropical ridge. The location of the vortex in the 06z global models have shifted southwestward, in response to a stronger subtropical ridge and the current forecast is laid southwest of the ECMWF 00z deterministic run, but not as far south as the 06z GFS, as the GFS indicates binary interaction with a nearby disturbance and there is too little confidence in making this scenario a forecast.

Beyond 30/12z, global models depict a sharp increase in southwesterly shear from a major trough across China's east coast and they all predict weakening. The present forecast assumes dry intrusions from the westerly shear and lower along-track SSTs and similarly predicts a weakening trend to a tropical depression by 01/12z.

At the same time, strong southwesterly flow aloft will compete with weak low level southeasterly flow, leading to a weak steering environment.

Apart from the poor initial organization of the system and possible restriction of upper level outflow from an anticyclone to the north, conditions appear to be favorable for intensification up to 30/12z and there is a possibility for Invest 93W to attain higher intensities than forecast. Indeed, the 06z HWRF intensifies it into a typhoon with central pressure of about 975mb.

Intensity forecast:

27/12z: 20 kt

28/12z: 35 kt (TS Songda)

29/12z: 45 kt

30/12z: 55 kt

31/12z: 40 kt

01/12z: 30 kt (TD)

Invest 96W - A developing low pressure area in the northern South China Sea

The low level circulation of a tropical disturbance, Invest 96W, has become better defined today, with a discernible low level center located in the northern part of the South China Sea. Earlier ASCAT reveals maximum winds of 20 knots in the northwestern quadrant of the system. Since the convective structure of the disturbace has not changed much recently, the estimated intensity at 03/12z is assessed at 20 knots.

96W is located in a favorable thermodynamic environment, with very warm SST (31C) and deep-layered moisture. Upper level environment is neutral to favorable, with low (<10 knots) vertical wind shear and moderate equator-ward outflow. Poleward outflow is being restricted by a TUTT cell to the north.

Global models agree that the disturbance will continue to track generally westward toward central Guangdong and make landfall within the next 24 hours. Both the ECMWF and GFS predict slightly strengthening, possibly to a tropical cyclone.

Near-term environment will remain conducive for tropical development and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next 12 hours, as the system is steered westward by a strong ridge to the northeast.

Intensity forecast:

03/12z: 20 kt

04/00z: 25 kt (Tropical Depression)

04/12z: 20 kt (Remnant Low)

@sobolev how is this hurricane season looking for the east coast of the US?

Last year we had a bunch of hurricanes fuck us up, and I would prefer not to go through that again.

I once made a lot of moolah by investing my student loan in some Miami insurance companies just before a hurricane hit Florida in places that were not Miami

After looking at the models runs (Climate Forecast System, ECMWF) and hurricane season analogs based on current and projected SSTs, I conclude that the East Coast is more likely to see increased tropical cyclones threats this year, despite a drop of overall tropical activity. High SSTs and lower shear near the US coast will support more intense storms, while a stronger upper level ridge across the Atlantic will help steer systems closer to the coast.

The North Atlantic basin is currently quiet, with no new tropical cyclones expected in the next couple of weeks. However, a Kelvin wave could move through the Atlantic sometime later in August which may give the first opportunity of tropical development, across the West Caribbean and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.